National growth for Timor-Leste*

“We are experiencing a unprecedented period of economic growth,” said Mr Agio Pereira the Secretary of State for the Council of Ministers and Official Spokesman for the IV Constitutional Government, “and it is not only a testament to the strong fiscal and social policies of the Xanana Gusmão Government but also proof that there is a collaborative spirit with the public service, the private sector, civil society and the Government to build a strong and economically viable nation.”

This week the Australian Bank, ANZ in Timor-Leste announced that over the last year new accounts have increased by 80% , “foot traffic” has increased 2% per week and lending has doubled.

“We see the results of the ANZ bank in Timor-Leste as a reflection that the environment of peace and stability in the nation has fostered conditions for overall economic growth.’ noted Pereira.

This year Timor-Leste was ranked the second fastest growing economy in the world, with a recorded 12.8% economic growth. “Despite the global recession, the Government was able to make giant strides.”

The economic growth, combined with gradual reforms to institutions has also seen positive results for the Government. In 2008, there was a 44% increase in the total number of tax payers, direct taxes increased by 46% and business taxes increased by 56%.

Increased budget execution of 283.6% from 2006/2007 allowed better service delivery to the people of Timor-Leste and it was estimated that direct and indirect wage generation for 2008 reached 47, 500. Approximately 45,000 jobs are projected to be generated by Government expenditure in 2009.

Pereira concluded, “The Xanana Gusmão Government will soon be announcing our national priorities for 2010 which will support the strong results achieved thus far. Our overall objective though is to take our people from the depths of poverty to become one of Asia’s miracle economies.” ENDS

* MEDIA RELEASE Díli- July 29, 2009
Statement By The Spokesperson of the IV Constitutional Government, The Secretary of State for the Council of Ministers. For More Information Please Contact: Agio Pereira +670 723 0011; E-mail: agiopereira@ cdm.gov.tl

Ainda o documento do FMI: o petróleo e o gás de Timor

Numa das páginas do relatório do Artº IV a que fazemos referência na 'entrada' anterior vê-se a seguinte "caixa de texto". Pelo seu interesse permitimo-nos deixar aqui a referida página, em que se pode ver um mapa com os locais de produção (actuais, como Bayu-Undan, ou previstos, como o Greater Sunrise) e um gráfico com a evolução previsível das receitas de exploração do petróleo e do gás (a maior riqueza até é de gás, já vendido para o Japão).

Note-se que o campo petrolífero em produção, Bayu-Undan, já atingiu o máximo da sua produção anual, indo a mesma decaindo ao longo do tempo até meados da década de '20.Este "perfil de vida" do campo é o usual na indústria extractiva de petróleo: a produção máxima de um campo é atingida poucos anos (3-4) depois do início da exploração e esta tende a durar, no total, cerca de 20-25 anos.

Daí o ser necessário fazer uma reserva de recursos que prepare o país para o pós-petróleo. É essa a principal função do Fundo Petrolífero de Timor Leste, um "fundo soberanos" cujos activos são apenas de natureza financeira e, até ao momento, apenas em dólares americanos. Ainda que se acredite haver alguns poços por descobrir no Mar de Timor, é muito possível que a vida útil total deles não ultrapasse os anos '40 ou '50 deste século. O que é já amanhã!...

PS - "Pequena" legenda para os mais leigos no assunto: a JPDA é a "Joint Petroleum Development Area" acordada entre Timor Leste a Austrália e que durará até que estas --- na verdade a Austrália --- decidam estabelecer um acordo sobre as fronteiras marítimas definitivas. Lá para 2055, mais ou menos.A zona a amarelo no mapa corresponde às áreas sob total jurisdição timorense e cujos contratos de pesquisa (e futura e eventual exploração) já foram assinados (nomeadamente com a italiana ENI).A zona a verde corresponde às áreas concessionadas da JPDA.

Como se pode verificar, o Greater Sunrise, a zona de exploração de que ainda se discute onde vai ser instalada a fábrica de liquefação do gás natural para permitir que ele seja transportado (para o Japão), está só parcialmente dentro da JPDA. Como as fronteiras definitivas naquela área poderão vir a ficar mais a oriente que o actual limite "à direita" da área de exploração conjunta, Timor Leste e a Austrália acordaram em que as receitas serão distribuídas igualmente entre os dois países, ao contrário do que acontece com Bayu-Undan, em que Timor recebe 90% dessas receitas.
Publicada por A. M. de Almeida Serra

Análise do FMI sobre a economia de Timor Leste

O Fundo Monetário I nternacional acaba de publicar dois documentos elaborados no âmbito da análise da economia nacional levada a cabo pela missão do Fundo realizada recentemente (3-16 de Junho/09) ao abrigo do Artº IV dos seus Estatutos.

Pode ver os referidos documentos na página de Timor Leste no site do Fundo. Abaixo está cópia da página em que se sintetizam algumas das principais informações económicas sobre o país.

Publicada por A. M. de Almeida Serra

Geocapital quer criar banco de investimento em Timor-Leste

22.07.2009 - 11h54
Por Lusa .

A sociedade financeira Geocapital quer abrir o primeiro banco de direito privado em Timor-Leste, num investimento estimado entre quatro e seis milhões de euros, disse à agência Lusa Diogo Lacerda Machado, administrador da empresa.

O responsável, que hoje formalizou, em Díli, o pedido de abertura do banco junto da autoridade bancária de Timor, explicou à agência Lusa que a instituição será estruturada como banco de investimentos. "O Banco Timorense de Investimento será o primeiro banco de direito timorense e irá sobretudo financiar investimentos em Timor-Leste, mais do que disputar depósitos", sublinhou Diogo Lacerda Machado. O administrador da Geocapital acrescentou que a empresa "tem tudo pronto" para lançar o banco assim que receba autorização da autoridade bancária timorense, manifestando expectativa de que a resposta das autoridades timorenses seja positiva e o mais rápida possível. Em Timor-Leste estão actualmente três bancos comerciais: o português Caixa Geral de Depósitos/BNU, o indonésio Mandiri e o australiano-zelandês ANZ.

Com um capital social de 10,2 milhões de euros, a Geocapital tem como accionistas o macaense Stanley Ho e o português Ferro Ribeiro. Constituída com o objectivo de investir em projectos ligados à agro-indústria, biocombustíveis e infra-estruturas em países e territórios lusófonos, a Geocapital tem investimentos em Angola, Brasil, Guiné-Bissau, Moçambique, Cabo Verde, Portugal e Macau.

No sector bancário, a Geocapital detém posições em quatro instituições financeiras de países africanos de língua português, nomeadamente Angola, Cabo Verde, Guiné-Bissau e Moçambique.

TIMOR-LESTE: Grappling with youth unemployment

DILI, 16 July 2009 (IRIN) - A decade after voting to end Indonesia's 24-year occupation, Timor-Leste is struggling with one of its thorniest socio-economic problems: half the men aged between 20 and 24 in Dili, the country’s largest city, are unemployed.

Various government and non-government initiatives are in place to address this problem, but in the absence of foreign investment or a dynamic local private sector, much more is needed, say analysts.

An estimated 20 percent of the country’s 1.1 million inhabitants are unemployed.

About 90 percent of the workforce is employed in agriculture, though this is largely seasonal, subsistence work, leaving an estimated 40 percent of this cohort effectively underemployed.

According to the UN Development Programme, 50 percent of the population lives below the national poverty line of US$0.88 per day, despite oil-based GDP per capita of $4,500 for 2008.

The country ranks 158th out of 179 countries in the UNDP Human Development Index, making it the least developed country in Asia.

“Job creation is vital to economic and political stability. With a median age of 21.8 years, creating jobs for the youth is integral to any employment programme in this country,” Fernando Encarnacao, a youth employment and community empowerment specialist for the International Labour Organization, told IRIN.

Youth violence

“With so many young people idle, it is easy to see how they became involved in 2006,” he said, referring to the social instability that year.

More than 150,000 people were displaced during violence between rival groups within the army and police and among the wider population.

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) , the crisis was caused by political rivalries dating back to the independence struggle up to 1999, divisions between “easterners” and “westerners”, as well as chronic poverty and a large and disempowered youth population.

James Scambary, author of an April 2009 report, Groups, gangs and armed violence in Timor-Leste, added that political manipulation of dozens of youth gangs contributed to the unrest.

Moreover, these groups, largely comprised of “young kids with nothing else to do”, continue to engage in crime and violence, he said.

But addressing such a problem is not easy. An estimated 15,000 young people enter the job market each year, and with 35 percent of the population younger than 15, the issue will become more pressing in the future, not least if the discrepancy between Timor-Leste's GDP per capita and real living standards is not addressed.

A way forward

One approach adopted by the government is to promote entrepreneurship and self-employment, in tandem with better skills training and business-oriented thinking for school leavers.

“Generating self-employment is vital. People see business opportunities, but cannot access capital. We provide credit to help,” said Angelo Soares of Tuba Rai Metin (Feet Firmly on the Ground), an NGO specialising in microfinance programmes.

However, according to MP Fernanda Borges, who leads the opposition National Unity Party: “Foreign investors are unlikely to come to this country while our skills base remains low.”

Timor ranks 170 out 181 on the World Bank's Doing Business Index, making it a difficult location for start-ups and new enterprises. It also means more reforms are needed to attract foreign investment, though some non-oil sectors are attracting external interest.

“There are parties looking to invest in construction and tourism,” one World Bank official said.

For now, locally generated employment, possibly involving public works programmes, would help to improve the infrastructure and road system, while providing jobs for idle youth.

President Jose Ramos-Horta told IRIN the government would employ "thousands of people" to build 4,000km of new roads.

But according to Brenda Barrett of the Education Development Center in Timor-Leste, “Youth in Timor-Leste need to learn by doing.”

Barrett runs the USAID-funded Preparing Ourselves for Work programme, working alongside local organisations to provide training on and off the job for 16-30 year-olds.

“We aim to generate professionalism, a work ethic, and much-needed self-confidence,” she said.

This accords with Scambary's view that undermining gang culture “needs more than jobs; it means a sense of entitlement, and community responsibility and acceptance”.

But with so many young Timorese out of work, large-scale projects may prove vital in the short term as government agencies and NGOs cannot reach everyone.

“I haven't received any skills training, or been informed about any employment schemes,” said Edio da Silva, from Becora in Dili. He is 19 and has been out of school and out of work since he was 14.

“I just stay home. Many of my friends do the same,” he said.

sr/ds/mw

Theme(s): (IRIN) Economy

[ENDS]

Fonte: http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=85299 Photo: Simon Roughneen/IRIN Getting young people back to work is seen as a key challenge for the recently independent nation

A taxa de inflação em Dili

Segundo números da "Estatística" de Timor Leste, a taxa de inflação homóloga de Maio passado (i.e., a variação de preços entre Maio de 2008 e Maio deste ano) foi... negativa (-0,3%)! Isto significa que, em média e em geral, os preços de todos os produtos que servem para calcular o Índice de Preços no Consumidor e, com ele, ataxa de inflação, terão diminuído cerca de 0,3% entre os meses de Maio dos dois anos referidos.

Naturalmente que esta evolução "em média e em geral" esconde variações diferenciadas de muitos produtos e grupos de produtos. Assim, por exemplo, os "transportes" terão diminuído 11,8% enquanto que a "carne e seus derivados" aumentou 13,1%. Os "cereais e seus derivados", individualmente o grupo d eprodutos com maior peso na estrutura de consumo dos timorenses (13,1% do total consumido em cada família), baixaram 9,1%.

Infelizmente não dispomos de dados suficentemente detalhados para distrinçar entre aquilo que poderemos designar como "inflação importada" (por via dos preços dos bens importados) e o que seria uma "inflação nacional" (dos produtos de origem quase exclusivamente nacional).

No entanto, o facto de a taxa de inflação ter descido "acompanhando" a descida dos preços dos grupos "cereais" e "transportes" (onde preponderam o arroz e os combustíveis, respectivamente) dão uma ideia da importância que a inflação importada nem no processo da formação da inflação em Timor Leste.

Os registos da inflação verificada em cada mês ajudam a compreender melhor a tendência significativamente descendente da taxa de inflação verificada no país.

Publicada por A. M. de Almeida Serra

Comunicado do FMI sobre a sua análise anual da economia de Timor

Uma nota final, quase um "Post Scriptum": a taxa de inflação para Março aqui indicada é de 2,7% mas a que resulta das estatísticas oficiais é de 4,2%, como se pode verificar na 'entrada' anterior. Explicação?

Publicada por A. M. de Almeida Serra

Execução orçamental do primeiro trimestre deste ano

A Direcção Geral do Tesouro divulgou os números da execução orçamental do primeiro trimestre de 2009. Veja abaixo alguns dos números publicados:

Note-se a frase final da imagem acima, em que se refere que as despesas efectivamente pagas por caixa representam 11% do total das despesas orçamentadas --- equivalentes a 76,6 milhões USD --- mas que se se adicionarem os compromissos e obrigações assumidos até agora relativos a subvenções (subsídios de vária natureza), bens e serviços e "capital menor", a taxa de execução passa a ser de 57% do orçamentado.

De notar igualmente o facto de, dos 589 milhões de USD que o governo está autorizado pelo Parlamento Nacional a levantar do Fundo Petrolífero, nenhum levantamento ter sido feito durante o primeiro trimestre.

Quanto às receitas é de salientar a baixa percentagem de receitas fiscais cobradas do comércio internacional (importações). Tal percentagem (6%) é explicada pelas baixas taxas alfandegárias actualmente praticadas.

Note-se que em muitos países em desenvolvimento esta percentagem tende a ser maior devido à estrutura do seu sistema fiscal, em que os impostos sobre o comércio internacional tendem a ser mais importantes devido à facilidade do processo da sua cobrança.

Publicada por A. M. de Almeida Serra

‘Fretilin leaders seem to enjoy telling ‘porkies’

MEDIA RELEASE

Díli- June 30, 2009

Statement By The Spokesperson of the IV Constitutional Government, The Secretary of State for the Council of Ministers

Less than one hour after the National Parliament passed the Gusmão Government’s Anti Corruption Commission on June 29th, Fretilin issued a press release claiming that the Gusmão Government’s Anti Corruption Commission was actually their policy.

“The Timor-Leste National Parliament in a rare display of bi-partisanship today passed with near unanimity (no votes against but one abstention from a Fretilin member) its own anticorruption law, in the process rejecting a draft that had been proposed by the Government over nearly one year.” wrote José Teixeira, the Fretilin party spokesman.

The Secretary of State for the Council of Ministers and Official Spokesman for the Fourth Constitutional Government bemused by the statement said “In Australia there is a word called ‘porkies’ which means a distortion of the truth.’

‘Fretilin leaders seem to enjoy telling ‘porkies’.

Fretilin’s media release was set to compliment their latest round of false corruption allegations against Gusmão. The allegations, widely aired on the ABC, were aimed at minimizing the impact of Gusmão’s Anti Corruption Commission announcement.

Pereira commented, “taking credit for the Anti Corruption Commission is not the most ridiculous ‘porky’ told to the media and reported by our friends at the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.”

On June 26, 2006 at the height of the crisis, Fretilin loyalist Arsenio Bano told the ABC that his party had twenty thousand Fretilin supporters ready to come into Dili to protest Mari Alkatiri’s resignation.

When reporter Mark Colvin pried for more evidence regarding Bano’s claims,
asking where all these so called Fretilin supporters were, Bano replied “It’s correct.... we have proof.....they are only ...well ….a half hour away.” Half an hour from Dili, they would have been highly visible, yet no military forces had spotted them.

“Fretilin’s twenty thousand supporters never appeared’, Pereira commented, ‘These are probably the same phantom supporters who were supposedly to participate in Fretilins’ largest ‘peace march’ which was reported by the ABC to be imminent… for all of 2008.” largest ‘peace march’ which was reported by the ABC to be imminent… for all of 2008.”

Pereira also expressed his surprise over how much effort Fretilin was putting into its relationship with the ABC. On February 7, 2007, Fretilin’s Secretary General Mari Alkatiri and former Prime Minister blamed the ABC for his ‘demise’, threatening to sue for defamation. He claimed the ABC reported with ‘extreme political bias and the utmost ill will.’ Alkatiri added that had the allegations not been broadcast, he would have never resigned.


At the closing of that interview, reporter Anne Barker asked Alkatiri if he had the support of the country, he replied “I can tell you clearly if there is a person who has the biggest support now in the country is Mari Alkatiri.”

Pereira added, “I am not sure which country Alkatiri was referring to…”

During the election Fretilin told the ABC they had video proof of Nobel Peace Prize laureate José Ramos-Horta, then candidate now President of Timor-Leste, buying votes. The video, of course, never materialized but The President‘s response to Fretilin’s ‘porky’ has become folklore: “Well, it's a bit like, you know, Imelda Marcos meeting with me and telling me Mr Ramos-Horta please don't collect too many shoes”.

José Teixeira, who now seems to be leading Fretilin’s aggressive media campaign against the Government of Timor-Leste, seems to have racked up the most ‘porkies’. In 2005, José Teixeira told the ABC that a national oil company would be set up “within weeks”. Pereira added, “It seems Fretilin leaders discovered having a National Oil Company did not suit their personal; therefore, their political interests.”

During the 2007 elections, José Teixeira told the ABC “several thousand” Australian-led troops were intimidating Fretilin voters while “trying to disrupt its rallies”. After the elections, Teixeira then claimed Australian troops had embarked on a “doorknocking campaign aimed at intimidating Fretilin supporters to switch their allegiance to the new illegitimate government of Xanana Gusmão.”

Pereira added: “Can anyone imagine the Australian troops on a political door knocking campaign throughout Timor-Leste?”

In November 2008, Teixeira told the ABC that Mari Alkatiri was just nominated the lead negotiator on Greater Sunrise, “The only problem with this statement” said Pereira “is either someone forgot to tell the Government Alkatiri was negotiating for us or someone forgot to tell José Teixeira he wasn’t the Minister for Natural Resources anymore.”

Later in 2008, José Teixeira told the ABC that Government was planning to use three hundred thousand (300,000) hectares of land, ‘more than half Timor’s arable land’ to establish a bio-fuel industry, but in the same year he told the ABC the Government had used all the arable land for ‘big hotels and casinos”.

Pereira commented, “Maybe all those big hotels are for all the bio-fuel workers migrating to Timor-Leste.”

Pereira concluded: “The Fretilin propaganda machine should spend more time on Timor-Leste , instead of focusing on Australia and working to excite the Australian media; but this is understandable as they lack any social or fiscal policies. Now, Fretilin is claiming the initiatives of the Fourth Constitutional Government of Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão as their own, like with the Anti-Corruption Commission. Fretilin Opposition leaders seem to be very confused on their own mandate.” Leste , instead of focusing on Australia and working to excite the Australian media; but this is understandable as they lack any social or fiscal policies. Now, Fretilin is claiming the initiatives of the Fourth Constitutional Government of Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão as their own, like with the Anti Corruption Commission. Fretilin Opposition leaders seem to be very confused on their own mandate.”

ENDS

For More Information Please Contact: Ágio Pereira +670 723 0011; E-mail:
agiopereira@cdm.gov.tl